Monday, March 26, 2007
MLB Preview: Condensed
It’s been too long since the last blog, which means law school is starting to suck. But a quick update for the die-hard fans:
- I have a 24 page paper due Monday, and about 2 pages done, so I won’t get to do a full MLB preview for SS. Very disappointing. But I want to get my picks in. I’ll justify them later.
- National League:
West (In order of predicted finish)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (love their offseason: staff anchored by Webb, Livan Hernandez, Randy Johnson and Doug Davis is up there for best in the league. Offense is young and scary).
- LA Dodgers (Very pitching heavy with high priced talent all over the field. Chemistry of the offense is an issue-- not a ton of power, but a lot of good hitting. Should make it close)
- San Diego Padres (With Maddux aboard, will lead the MLB in ERA this year. Book it. Offense is another story)
- Colorado Rockies (always improving, always lacking great pitching)
- San Fransico Giants (old and expensive, hard to watch)
Central
- Milwaukee Brewers (There time has finally come. There young stars on offense can mash, and they have solid pitching options with Ben Sheets (aka Mark Prior Jr), Jeff Suppan, Bush and Capuano. Their defense kind of stinks, but not a fatal deficiency, I think).
- Chicago Cubs (Too much offensive talent to not win 90 games—Lee, Soriano and Ramirez all can drive in 100+. Zambrano leads a much improved pitching staff; Ted Lilly, Rich Hill and even Jason Marquis should make this team watchable again).
- Pittsburgh Pirates (Momma told me to stay off the crack, but I gotta make one crazy pick this year. They played over .500 ball in the 2nd half of the season last year, and their young talent (Zach Duke, Snell, LaRoche, Jason Bay) just get better.
- St. Louis (History doesn’t always repeat itself—see Atlanta Braves 2006—the Cards can’t always win with crap. Their starting pitching is a mess, and their lineup, minus Pojuls isn’t much better with Edmonds and Rolens on the shelf to start the year).
- Houston Astros (In serious trouble if Clemens doesn’t come back, with only 2 real starters. Offense will be better with Lee. Put them at the top if Clemens comes back).
- Cincinnati Reds (Didn’t do anything this offseason to help themselves. Back of their rotation and bullpen is just atrocious).
East
- Atlanta Braves (Will be back on top if Smoltz leads rejuvenated rotation. Plenty of offense, and rebuilt bullpen looks stellar).
- Philadelphia Phillies-- *wild card (Confidence bunch with a plethora of starting pitching after acquiring Eaton andGarcia. Offense is balanced with Rollins, Utley, Rowand and Howard).
- NY Mets (Injuries have depleted their staff to Glavine and pray for rain. Will throw up 12 runs a game. Not the best formula for suceess).
- Florida Marlins (Injuries and the loss of Manager of the Year Joe Girardi will lead to a degression of a team that had high hopes after almost making the playoffs last year).
- Washington Nationals (Some people think that they will lose 110 teams. I think they’ll lose 130. Ask me to name one of their starters. OK. Jerome Williams, cut by the Cubs for not being able to pitch last year. Enough said).
Playoffs: Diamondbacks over Phillies, Braves over Brewers.
Diamondbacks over Braves
Cy Young: Zambrano
MVP: Chase Utley
Rookie of the Year: *edit Carlos Quentin is injured. I get a freebie on that one. Instead, I'll go with Reds outfield Josh Hamilton.
AL (just the standings)
West
Oakland
LA Angels
Seattle
Texas
Central
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Kansas City
Minnesota
East
Boston
NY Yankees (wild card)
Toronto
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Playoffs: Boston over Oakland, NY Yankees over Cleveland
Boston over Yankees
CY Young AND Rookie of the Year: Dice-K
MVP: Grady Sizemore
Boston over Arizona in the World Series
- One more thing. Espn.com is reporting on the extension that the city of New Orleans gave to keep the Saints until 2010, which includes $12.5M in city money for subsidies a year until 2008, and rising to $28.5M a year after. (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2812949) You all know how I feel about that (See January 15 post “Feel bad story of the Year”). Maybe gives me another opportunity to get published.
- there you have it folks. Finals end May 11. Hope to update until then, but no promises (I’ll have plenty of time this summer). Take care.
- I have a 24 page paper due Monday, and about 2 pages done, so I won’t get to do a full MLB preview for SS. Very disappointing. But I want to get my picks in. I’ll justify them later.
- National League:
West (In order of predicted finish)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (love their offseason: staff anchored by Webb, Livan Hernandez, Randy Johnson and Doug Davis is up there for best in the league. Offense is young and scary).
- LA Dodgers (Very pitching heavy with high priced talent all over the field. Chemistry of the offense is an issue-- not a ton of power, but a lot of good hitting. Should make it close)
- San Diego Padres (With Maddux aboard, will lead the MLB in ERA this year. Book it. Offense is another story)
- Colorado Rockies (always improving, always lacking great pitching)
- San Fransico Giants (old and expensive, hard to watch)
Central
- Milwaukee Brewers (There time has finally come. There young stars on offense can mash, and they have solid pitching options with Ben Sheets (aka Mark Prior Jr), Jeff Suppan, Bush and Capuano. Their defense kind of stinks, but not a fatal deficiency, I think).
- Chicago Cubs (Too much offensive talent to not win 90 games—Lee, Soriano and Ramirez all can drive in 100+. Zambrano leads a much improved pitching staff; Ted Lilly, Rich Hill and even Jason Marquis should make this team watchable again).
- Pittsburgh Pirates (Momma told me to stay off the crack, but I gotta make one crazy pick this year. They played over .500 ball in the 2nd half of the season last year, and their young talent (Zach Duke, Snell, LaRoche, Jason Bay) just get better.
- St. Louis (History doesn’t always repeat itself—see Atlanta Braves 2006—the Cards can’t always win with crap. Their starting pitching is a mess, and their lineup, minus Pojuls isn’t much better with Edmonds and Rolens on the shelf to start the year).
- Houston Astros (In serious trouble if Clemens doesn’t come back, with only 2 real starters. Offense will be better with Lee. Put them at the top if Clemens comes back).
- Cincinnati Reds (Didn’t do anything this offseason to help themselves. Back of their rotation and bullpen is just atrocious).
East
- Atlanta Braves (Will be back on top if Smoltz leads rejuvenated rotation. Plenty of offense, and rebuilt bullpen looks stellar).
- Philadelphia Phillies-- *wild card (Confidence bunch with a plethora of starting pitching after acquiring Eaton andGarcia. Offense is balanced with Rollins, Utley, Rowand and Howard).
- NY Mets (Injuries have depleted their staff to Glavine and pray for rain. Will throw up 12 runs a game. Not the best formula for suceess).
- Florida Marlins (Injuries and the loss of Manager of the Year Joe Girardi will lead to a degression of a team that had high hopes after almost making the playoffs last year).
- Washington Nationals (Some people think that they will lose 110 teams. I think they’ll lose 130. Ask me to name one of their starters. OK. Jerome Williams, cut by the Cubs for not being able to pitch last year. Enough said).
Playoffs: Diamondbacks over Phillies, Braves over Brewers.
Diamondbacks over Braves
Cy Young: Zambrano
MVP: Chase Utley
Rookie of the Year: *edit Carlos Quentin is injured. I get a freebie on that one. Instead, I'll go with Reds outfield Josh Hamilton.
AL (just the standings)
West
Oakland
LA Angels
Seattle
Texas
Central
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Kansas City
Minnesota
East
Boston
NY Yankees (wild card)
Toronto
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Playoffs: Boston over Oakland, NY Yankees over Cleveland
Boston over Yankees
CY Young AND Rookie of the Year: Dice-K
MVP: Grady Sizemore
Boston over Arizona in the World Series
- One more thing. Espn.com is reporting on the extension that the city of New Orleans gave to keep the Saints until 2010, which includes $12.5M in city money for subsidies a year until 2008, and rising to $28.5M a year after. (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2812949) You all know how I feel about that (See January 15 post “Feel bad story of the Year”). Maybe gives me another opportunity to get published.
- there you have it folks. Finals end May 11. Hope to update until then, but no promises (I’ll have plenty of time this summer). Take care.
Monday, February 19, 2007
Center of Attention
Its not everyday you sign someone to a 9 figure deal and not have, say, a permanent position for him. But, apparently, in Cubs camp, where up is down and day is night (and Jason Marquis is a good investment) this is no problem. At the Cubs convention in January, new manager Lou Pinella discussed the possibility, nay, the preference to start $136 million Alfonso Soriano in centerfield on opening day. Sure! Why not?
Soriano, who had played second base his entire professional career until he begrudgingly moved to left field last year for Washington (only after causing quite a stink for manager Frank Robinson). Soriano struggled a bit, but ended up throwing out plenty of guys (22 assists), generally because he was overly tested because of his new position.
Soriano is athletic as hell—he better be for that price—and playing a corner outfield should never have been a big deal. But to put him in centerfield at Wrigley Field where the wind can confuse even the most veteran players is a downright terrible move. Anyone who thinks that Soriano can learn how to play arguably the toughest position on the field in 45 days, in Arizona, needs a C-TScan (check it, Lou).
But its not like the Cubs have a ton of other options. Outfielders expected to make the opening day roster: Cliff Floyd (corner outfielder, slowed by injuries, slated for a platoon rule), Matt Murton (not nearly athletic enough for CF), Angel Pagan (a nice guy to have on the bench), Soriano and Jacque Jones. Hendry and Pinella have discussed starting Jones out in CF, a thought that makes NL manager’s mouth water. His arm was awful last year, which he draws up to bone spurs, and his range was embarrassing.
More intriguing are the options in the minors. Top prospect Felix Pie has long been touted as the next big thing, but management has been cautious, as not to invoke the c-word (Corey, as in Patterson, that is). Pie did himself no favors by hitting a meek .219 in winter ball. His Triple AAA hitting coach Von Joshua was with him down there in Licey and attributes his struggles to the logistics of Winterball; Pie hit towards the bottom of the lineup, where he rarely faced a starting pitcher more than once—as a result, most of his at-bats came against left-handed specialists. Doesn’t excuse a .219 average, but the organization was concerned with getting his defense right.
Which is good, because word is that the kid can play D. And, unlike some of the past Cubs players over the last regime, the reports on his attitude are even better. Pie was in the first group of position players to report early to Spring Training. His teammates and coaches have spoken highly of his work ethic. And most telling, every team he has played on in the Cubs organization has made it into the post season. The difference between him and Patterson is his willingness to learn and adjust, and hopefully his ability to take on pressure.
Another prospect, 26 year old, non-invitee Chris Walker has a shot of cracking the club, if Pie isn’t ready to go. Walker hit .292 at AA last year, stealing 50 bases, with a solid OBP of .351—making both the Southern League’s mid year and post season’s all-star teams.
The Cubs shouldn’t be evaluating a CF based on offensive talent though. With the offensive fire power they have (Soriano, Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez all have the ability to hit 40 HRs each, Murton, Floyd and Michael Barrett figure to combine for another 40 total), they can afford to trade a bat for good defense in center in the 8 spot.
It’d be hard to fit all of these guys in the field with Jones, Murton, Floyd, and Soriano demanding significant playing time—but it has been long rumored that Jones is on his way out. Rather than a cash dump, which Hendry has been forced to do the last couple of years with Patterson, Sosa and other perhaps valuable but leverageless chips, Hendry is wisely holding on to Jones until the first time suffers a major outfield injury. Jones, whose 2 years and roughly $16M remaining contract, is a relative bargain, and would become worthwhile to someone.
Hendry has finally learned his lesson—it is hard to imagine holding on to Jones while letting Soriano play center and Pie sit in the minors. But finally with a firm poker face, Hendry is bound to receive something for his wise investment from last season’s disastrous offseason.
Finally, a wild card: how about Pinella, a good old Yankee, gives Bernie Williams a call? Let’s assume for a second that an opportunity does present itself for the Cubs to move Jones, moving Soriano to right, and the Cubs STILL don’t feel comfortable with Pie or Walker in center. Could Williams, determined to prove he can still play, come to the Midwest and patrol center for a season, keeping the seat warm and easing Pie into the regular role? It’s a long shot, but if the stars align…
Other spring thoughts:
- Kind of a curious move by Alex Rodriguez, coming out on the first day of S.T and saying that him and Jeter aren’t best friends anymore. I’m not sure I see the point—can’t he just continue to lie to the media? Does anyone even buy that he’s being earnest now?
- A prediction of mine has already gone awry: the Chicago Tribune is reporting that Juan Uribe will report to S.T. this week.
- Great Phil Rogers piece about what the Cubs could get for trading Carlos Zambrano.
- Buster Only discussed how it will be interesting to see how Bruce Bochy, new manager of the Giants will handle Barry Bonds this season, as he has limited experience with “troublesome” superstars. In San Diego, Bochy managed Trevor Hoffman, who has the reputation as being one of the nicest baseball guys ever. Same with Brian Giles.
Soriano, who had played second base his entire professional career until he begrudgingly moved to left field last year for Washington (only after causing quite a stink for manager Frank Robinson). Soriano struggled a bit, but ended up throwing out plenty of guys (22 assists), generally because he was overly tested because of his new position.
Soriano is athletic as hell—he better be for that price—and playing a corner outfield should never have been a big deal. But to put him in centerfield at Wrigley Field where the wind can confuse even the most veteran players is a downright terrible move. Anyone who thinks that Soriano can learn how to play arguably the toughest position on the field in 45 days, in Arizona, needs a C-TScan (check it, Lou).
But its not like the Cubs have a ton of other options. Outfielders expected to make the opening day roster: Cliff Floyd (corner outfielder, slowed by injuries, slated for a platoon rule), Matt Murton (not nearly athletic enough for CF), Angel Pagan (a nice guy to have on the bench), Soriano and Jacque Jones. Hendry and Pinella have discussed starting Jones out in CF, a thought that makes NL manager’s mouth water. His arm was awful last year, which he draws up to bone spurs, and his range was embarrassing.
More intriguing are the options in the minors. Top prospect Felix Pie has long been touted as the next big thing, but management has been cautious, as not to invoke the c-word (Corey, as in Patterson, that is). Pie did himself no favors by hitting a meek .219 in winter ball. His Triple AAA hitting coach Von Joshua was with him down there in Licey and attributes his struggles to the logistics of Winterball; Pie hit towards the bottom of the lineup, where he rarely faced a starting pitcher more than once—as a result, most of his at-bats came against left-handed specialists. Doesn’t excuse a .219 average, but the organization was concerned with getting his defense right.
Which is good, because word is that the kid can play D. And, unlike some of the past Cubs players over the last regime, the reports on his attitude are even better. Pie was in the first group of position players to report early to Spring Training. His teammates and coaches have spoken highly of his work ethic. And most telling, every team he has played on in the Cubs organization has made it into the post season. The difference between him and Patterson is his willingness to learn and adjust, and hopefully his ability to take on pressure.
Another prospect, 26 year old, non-invitee Chris Walker has a shot of cracking the club, if Pie isn’t ready to go. Walker hit .292 at AA last year, stealing 50 bases, with a solid OBP of .351—making both the Southern League’s mid year and post season’s all-star teams.
The Cubs shouldn’t be evaluating a CF based on offensive talent though. With the offensive fire power they have (Soriano, Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez all have the ability to hit 40 HRs each, Murton, Floyd and Michael Barrett figure to combine for another 40 total), they can afford to trade a bat for good defense in center in the 8 spot.
It’d be hard to fit all of these guys in the field with Jones, Murton, Floyd, and Soriano demanding significant playing time—but it has been long rumored that Jones is on his way out. Rather than a cash dump, which Hendry has been forced to do the last couple of years with Patterson, Sosa and other perhaps valuable but leverageless chips, Hendry is wisely holding on to Jones until the first time suffers a major outfield injury. Jones, whose 2 years and roughly $16M remaining contract, is a relative bargain, and would become worthwhile to someone.
Hendry has finally learned his lesson—it is hard to imagine holding on to Jones while letting Soriano play center and Pie sit in the minors. But finally with a firm poker face, Hendry is bound to receive something for his wise investment from last season’s disastrous offseason.
Finally, a wild card: how about Pinella, a good old Yankee, gives Bernie Williams a call? Let’s assume for a second that an opportunity does present itself for the Cubs to move Jones, moving Soriano to right, and the Cubs STILL don’t feel comfortable with Pie or Walker in center. Could Williams, determined to prove he can still play, come to the Midwest and patrol center for a season, keeping the seat warm and easing Pie into the regular role? It’s a long shot, but if the stars align…
Other spring thoughts:
- Kind of a curious move by Alex Rodriguez, coming out on the first day of S.T and saying that him and Jeter aren’t best friends anymore. I’m not sure I see the point—can’t he just continue to lie to the media? Does anyone even buy that he’s being earnest now?
- A prediction of mine has already gone awry: the Chicago Tribune is reporting that Juan Uribe will report to S.T. this week.
- Great Phil Rogers piece about what the Cubs could get for trading Carlos Zambrano.
- Buster Only discussed how it will be interesting to see how Bruce Bochy, new manager of the Giants will handle Barry Bonds this season, as he has limited experience with “troublesome” superstars. In San Diego, Bochy managed Trevor Hoffman, who has the reputation as being one of the nicest baseball guys ever. Same with Brian Giles.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Smells of Spring
The Superbowl has come and passed, and the city of Chicago was once again reminded that “winning” is not one its strongest points. I made the trip up to Chicago, and while I enjoyed the season, well, I’m not going to comment anymore on the football season. The real news is that spring training opens tomorrow, and my favorite season of the year, baseball season, is officially under way.
The general theme of the offseason was “cha-ching”, led, of course, by my Chicago Cubs. Cubs GM Jim Hendry, who even closed deals from a hospital bed, received harsh criticism from his colleagues for jacking up the prices of free-agents—spending early and often. Within a month of the conclusion of the World Series he committed over $220 million dollars to five free agents. But can you blame him? The Cubs, who had drained the prospect cupboard empty, had failed miserably since their infamous trip to the 2003 postseason, and Hendry, in the last year of his contract, made a decision to go out with a bang. Were their decisions smart? Ask me when Alfonso Soriano, at 38, is getting paid $18M. Actually, don’t. The Cubs will be competitive this year, in a weak National League and more specifically NL Central division. With Derek Lee coming back healthy (the Cubs’ fans least favorite 3 word phrase), the Cubs have essentially added two of the best hitters in the National League. Jacque Jones, a Cliff Floyd/Matt Murton platoon, Michael Barrett, Aramis Ramirez and newly acquired Mark DeRosa promise that the Cubs can jack up 10 runs on any given day where the wind is blowing out at Wrigely. How much will they give up is another story. But at least Cubs fans won’t have to watch a team that can’t hit OR pitch.
Other offseason declarations:
Best Signing: Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers
- The Dodgers, for this offseason, got him at a bargain—only three years at $15M. He is a legitimate ace, and despite some shoulder concerns, has been pretty durable over the last 5 years.
Others:
- Soriano, Cubs: Again, this deal won’t look so good down the road, but you absolutely cannot ignore adding the best free agents and one of the best players in the league. Soriano is in his prime, durable, powerful, fast and will play in a little league park compared to where he was last year. Big numbers for the next few years.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox: Dice-K, whose name I had to copy and paste from ESPN.com, is going to be hard to hit for at least a few months, make the Sox rotation pretty formidable. Then add the marketing factor, and the fact that he isn’t with the Yankees.
Worst Signing: Juan Pierre, LA Dodgers
- Get off your high horse Dodger fans. Giving Pierre 5 years at $9M is atrocious. He can’t hit for any power whatsoever, and imagine what his worth will be in five years when he can’t run as well (his stolen base: caught stealing ratio was among the worst already last year). I love his attitude and scrappiness, but I also liked Augie Ojeda’s-- not for that cash.
Best Deal: Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
- The Reds resigned Harang, perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the league to a 4 year extension last week, at an average of $9M. He won 16 games last year, struck out 216 in 234.3 IP with a 3.76 ERA, head and shoulders above, say Barry Zito, who received nearly twice as much. Locking him up was swell idea.
Other good deals:
- Tony Armas, Pittsburgh Pirates: In this day in age, starting pitching is expensive. Armas has never fulfilled his potential with Montreal/Washington, but when Jason Marquis is making 7 bills, why not give a guy who throws in the 90’s and plus curve 3.5M?
- Greg Maddux, SD Padres: Maddux was born to pitch in that park. A risk free signing (1 year at $10M), Maddux doubles as a pitching coach.
- Preston Wilson, STL Cardinals: Again, its all relative. When free agent A makes $18M to hit 48 HRS, I’ll take free agent B to 25 HRs at $1M. Wilson still has some productivity left.
Worst Deal: Jason Marquis, Chicago Cubs
- The Cubs paid $7M a year on a project pitcher, who they believe can regain his 2005 form under Larry Rothschild’s tutilege. A few problems: Rothschild is no, say, Dave Duncan, who couldn’t turn around Marquis—what makes him think he could do any better? Don’t like that argument. Fine. How about, YOU DON’T PAY 7 MILLION DOLLARS FOR A PROJECT PITCHER. At least he can hit.
Best Trade:
Doug Davis for Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas and Greg Aquino, Diamondbacks and Brewers
- This trade works well. From the Diamondbacks perspective, they get a real good pitcher, in a market where pitching was overvalued. They felt comfortable handing the catching reins over to lefty Miguel Montero and adding Davis was essential in putting together I feel is the best rotation in the NL. The Brewers did get a ton in return: Estrada is a huge offensive upgrade over Damian Miller, and they got two closer candidates in Vargas and Aquino.
Worst Trade:
Brandon McCarthy for Josh Danks and Nick Masset, Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers
- The Sox, in attempts to get younger in the rotation, gave up their best starting young pitcher (who was ready for the majors anyways). Josh Danks and Nick Masset are nice prospects—great prospects actually, but wasn’t McCarthy one too? The Sox set themselves back a few years, in forcing themselves to develop another young pitcher. The Rangers, who are better off with quantity with their current situation, got a pitcher who gives up a few too many homeruns in ballpark that doesn’t hide that.
Best offseason (Best situated to start the season award): LA Dodgers
- Brought in Pierre, Schmidt, Randy Wolf and Luis Gonzalez and brought back Nomar Garciaparra from a team that went to post-season last year. They have tons of young hitting, veteran starting pitching to go back. Spent a lot of money, but they have plenty of talent.
Others
- Arizona Diamondbacks: They beefed up their starting pitching, adding Davis and Randy Johnson to an already potent staff consisting of reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb and former all-star Livan Hernandez along and Juan Cruz. Their offense is stacked with young offensive studs like Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Conor Jackson. Dangerous team this year.
- Cubs: What’s the price of being competitive? Something like $300M
- Milwaukee Brewers: Along with the Davis trade, they got healthy (Rickie Weeks and J.J Hardy recovered from season ending injuries), more experienced (Weeks, Hardy and Fielder make one of the best, young infields in the league), signed impact players Craig Counsell and Jeff Suppan and locked up versatile Bill Hall. They are going to be competitive in the NL Central this year, and for the next 5 years.
- Kansas City Royals: Really? Are you sure? I like what they have done. It takes a while to build a winner, especially with no money. I’m not among the majority who felt that signing Gil Meche was a good “message sender”, but the deals for Ryan Shealey, Luke Hudson, Joey Gaithright and Brian Bannister are OK pieces when Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, Luke Hovechar and Billy Butler finally hit their stride. I don’t know. Maybe not.
- Colorado Rockies: Sure they disgruntled their star, but he might be gone yet. Meanwhile, they signed Javy Lopez, Brian Lawrence, Josh Fogg and got a plethora of talent from the Astros for Jason Jennings, including OF Willy Taveras.
- The Yankees and Red Sox: They always do well, cause they shell out cash. Between them, they brought in Pettite, Dice-K, Kei Igawa, J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo and Joel Pinerio.
Worst offseason: Texas Rangers
- They lost Gary Matthews Jr., Carlos Lee, Mark DeRosa, Adam Eaton and Kip Wells and brought in Sammy Sosa (who will not make the opening day roster). They didn’t solve their pitching problems, because they were held hostage by the thought of losing mediocre starter Vincent Padilla, and signed him for more than $11M per year. Brought in aging CF Kenny Lofton and oft-injured closer Eric Gagne (who they guaranteed the closer job too). Can you say desperation?
Others:
- Chicago White Sox: They are still in a great position to compete, but Sox GM Kenny Williams’ stubborn stance on not over-paying for pitching (hey, no one wants to “overpay”) have seriously impeded the Sox chances of winning this year. Ditching Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy brought in some very good young talent, but its raw and unproven. Gio Gonzalez, Danks, Masset, Andy Cisco, Gavin Floyd and David Aardsma all pack heat—but they aren’t ready to win anything this year. They also failed to find insurance for Brian Anderson out in center, unless you count Daren Erstad, who is really insurance for Scott Posednik in left. Juan Uribe’s offseason activities may cause him to miss some of Spring Training. The Sox are going to have a winning record—but how will fans feel knowing they traded away 5 or 6 wins?
More predictions, thoughts to come. I love baseball season.
The general theme of the offseason was “cha-ching”, led, of course, by my Chicago Cubs. Cubs GM Jim Hendry, who even closed deals from a hospital bed, received harsh criticism from his colleagues for jacking up the prices of free-agents—spending early and often. Within a month of the conclusion of the World Series he committed over $220 million dollars to five free agents. But can you blame him? The Cubs, who had drained the prospect cupboard empty, had failed miserably since their infamous trip to the 2003 postseason, and Hendry, in the last year of his contract, made a decision to go out with a bang. Were their decisions smart? Ask me when Alfonso Soriano, at 38, is getting paid $18M. Actually, don’t. The Cubs will be competitive this year, in a weak National League and more specifically NL Central division. With Derek Lee coming back healthy (the Cubs’ fans least favorite 3 word phrase), the Cubs have essentially added two of the best hitters in the National League. Jacque Jones, a Cliff Floyd/Matt Murton platoon, Michael Barrett, Aramis Ramirez and newly acquired Mark DeRosa promise that the Cubs can jack up 10 runs on any given day where the wind is blowing out at Wrigely. How much will they give up is another story. But at least Cubs fans won’t have to watch a team that can’t hit OR pitch.
Other offseason declarations:
Best Signing: Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers
- The Dodgers, for this offseason, got him at a bargain—only three years at $15M. He is a legitimate ace, and despite some shoulder concerns, has been pretty durable over the last 5 years.
Others:
- Soriano, Cubs: Again, this deal won’t look so good down the road, but you absolutely cannot ignore adding the best free agents and one of the best players in the league. Soriano is in his prime, durable, powerful, fast and will play in a little league park compared to where he was last year. Big numbers for the next few years.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox: Dice-K, whose name I had to copy and paste from ESPN.com, is going to be hard to hit for at least a few months, make the Sox rotation pretty formidable. Then add the marketing factor, and the fact that he isn’t with the Yankees.
Worst Signing: Juan Pierre, LA Dodgers
- Get off your high horse Dodger fans. Giving Pierre 5 years at $9M is atrocious. He can’t hit for any power whatsoever, and imagine what his worth will be in five years when he can’t run as well (his stolen base: caught stealing ratio was among the worst already last year). I love his attitude and scrappiness, but I also liked Augie Ojeda’s-- not for that cash.
Best Deal: Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
- The Reds resigned Harang, perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the league to a 4 year extension last week, at an average of $9M. He won 16 games last year, struck out 216 in 234.3 IP with a 3.76 ERA, head and shoulders above, say Barry Zito, who received nearly twice as much. Locking him up was swell idea.
Other good deals:
- Tony Armas, Pittsburgh Pirates: In this day in age, starting pitching is expensive. Armas has never fulfilled his potential with Montreal/Washington, but when Jason Marquis is making 7 bills, why not give a guy who throws in the 90’s and plus curve 3.5M?
- Greg Maddux, SD Padres: Maddux was born to pitch in that park. A risk free signing (1 year at $10M), Maddux doubles as a pitching coach.
- Preston Wilson, STL Cardinals: Again, its all relative. When free agent A makes $18M to hit 48 HRS, I’ll take free agent B to 25 HRs at $1M. Wilson still has some productivity left.
Worst Deal: Jason Marquis, Chicago Cubs
- The Cubs paid $7M a year on a project pitcher, who they believe can regain his 2005 form under Larry Rothschild’s tutilege. A few problems: Rothschild is no, say, Dave Duncan, who couldn’t turn around Marquis—what makes him think he could do any better? Don’t like that argument. Fine. How about, YOU DON’T PAY 7 MILLION DOLLARS FOR A PROJECT PITCHER. At least he can hit.
Best Trade:
Doug Davis for Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas and Greg Aquino, Diamondbacks and Brewers
- This trade works well. From the Diamondbacks perspective, they get a real good pitcher, in a market where pitching was overvalued. They felt comfortable handing the catching reins over to lefty Miguel Montero and adding Davis was essential in putting together I feel is the best rotation in the NL. The Brewers did get a ton in return: Estrada is a huge offensive upgrade over Damian Miller, and they got two closer candidates in Vargas and Aquino.
Worst Trade:
Brandon McCarthy for Josh Danks and Nick Masset, Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers
- The Sox, in attempts to get younger in the rotation, gave up their best starting young pitcher (who was ready for the majors anyways). Josh Danks and Nick Masset are nice prospects—great prospects actually, but wasn’t McCarthy one too? The Sox set themselves back a few years, in forcing themselves to develop another young pitcher. The Rangers, who are better off with quantity with their current situation, got a pitcher who gives up a few too many homeruns in ballpark that doesn’t hide that.
Best offseason (Best situated to start the season award): LA Dodgers
- Brought in Pierre, Schmidt, Randy Wolf and Luis Gonzalez and brought back Nomar Garciaparra from a team that went to post-season last year. They have tons of young hitting, veteran starting pitching to go back. Spent a lot of money, but they have plenty of talent.
Others
- Arizona Diamondbacks: They beefed up their starting pitching, adding Davis and Randy Johnson to an already potent staff consisting of reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb and former all-star Livan Hernandez along and Juan Cruz. Their offense is stacked with young offensive studs like Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Conor Jackson. Dangerous team this year.
- Cubs: What’s the price of being competitive? Something like $300M
- Milwaukee Brewers: Along with the Davis trade, they got healthy (Rickie Weeks and J.J Hardy recovered from season ending injuries), more experienced (Weeks, Hardy and Fielder make one of the best, young infields in the league), signed impact players Craig Counsell and Jeff Suppan and locked up versatile Bill Hall. They are going to be competitive in the NL Central this year, and for the next 5 years.
- Kansas City Royals: Really? Are you sure? I like what they have done. It takes a while to build a winner, especially with no money. I’m not among the majority who felt that signing Gil Meche was a good “message sender”, but the deals for Ryan Shealey, Luke Hudson, Joey Gaithright and Brian Bannister are OK pieces when Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, Luke Hovechar and Billy Butler finally hit their stride. I don’t know. Maybe not.
- Colorado Rockies: Sure they disgruntled their star, but he might be gone yet. Meanwhile, they signed Javy Lopez, Brian Lawrence, Josh Fogg and got a plethora of talent from the Astros for Jason Jennings, including OF Willy Taveras.
- The Yankees and Red Sox: They always do well, cause they shell out cash. Between them, they brought in Pettite, Dice-K, Kei Igawa, J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo and Joel Pinerio.
Worst offseason: Texas Rangers
- They lost Gary Matthews Jr., Carlos Lee, Mark DeRosa, Adam Eaton and Kip Wells and brought in Sammy Sosa (who will not make the opening day roster). They didn’t solve their pitching problems, because they were held hostage by the thought of losing mediocre starter Vincent Padilla, and signed him for more than $11M per year. Brought in aging CF Kenny Lofton and oft-injured closer Eric Gagne (who they guaranteed the closer job too). Can you say desperation?
Others:
- Chicago White Sox: They are still in a great position to compete, but Sox GM Kenny Williams’ stubborn stance on not over-paying for pitching (hey, no one wants to “overpay”) have seriously impeded the Sox chances of winning this year. Ditching Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy brought in some very good young talent, but its raw and unproven. Gio Gonzalez, Danks, Masset, Andy Cisco, Gavin Floyd and David Aardsma all pack heat—but they aren’t ready to win anything this year. They also failed to find insurance for Brian Anderson out in center, unless you count Daren Erstad, who is really insurance for Scott Posednik in left. Juan Uribe’s offseason activities may cause him to miss some of Spring Training. The Sox are going to have a winning record—but how will fans feel knowing they traded away 5 or 6 wins?
More predictions, thoughts to come. I love baseball season.
Monday, January 15, 2007
Feel Bad Story of the Year
*Disclaimer: this post, unlike others in the past, is not the result of blatant homer attitudes. This piece was conceived on Monday, September 25, 2005, during the Saints home opener on national television. The treacheries of law school, plus the recent relativity have caused it to form today. Believe it or not, if the Bears lost on Sunday, this column would still be posted today.
Just in time for the Saint’s first NFC conference championship birth in forty years of existence, which furthered the miraculous recovery from a 3-13 season in 2005, not to mention the social implications of a “fairy tale” season after Hurricane Katrina completely destroyed New Orleans, the Associated Press released the new murder rate in New Orleans.
Here are some of the not-so-shocking results, from MSNBC:
“Last year, university researchers conducted an experiment in which police fired 700 blank rounds in a New Orleans neighborhood in a single afternoon. No one called to report the gunfire.”
“The city’s homicide rate has climbed again to nearly 10 times the national average”
Criminologist Peter Scharf said ““We’re going in the reverse of 46 of the top 50 cities in the United States. Almost everyone is going down, but we’re going up.”
“The murder rate in New Orleans has crept back up to 265…Adjusted for the city’s size, those numbers dwarf murder rates in Washington, Detroit, Baltimore, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles and New York City.”
OK, you get the point. I don’t deserve a Nobel Peace Prize for pointing out the New Orleans has been and will continue to be a very troubled city. So how come no one, not one columnist, one fan, one public figure has given thought to the possibility that returning a professional football team to a city that was structurally, physically and financially devastated was a bad idea?
After Katrina, the Saints home, the Superdome was damaged to the tune of $185 million. The Governor of Louisiana, Kathleen Blanco, deemed its repair essential to the state, which owned the facility, according to USAToday. Luckily for the residents of New Orleans, Paul Tagliabue provided a $15 million grant, leaving the bill for renovating and repairing the dome at $170 million.
Meanwhile, the city of New Orleans remains completely in ruins. The same MSNBC article sites that the city is down to 3.14 police officers per 1,000 residents, less than half the ratio of Washington D.C “As far as law enforcement goes, money is at the root of everything,” said Lt. David Benelli, head of the police officers union. “We need more personnel, more equipment. The DA’s office needs more people and money. The corrections department needs more people and space to house prisoners.”
The impoverished police have a hard time controlling the apathetic residents, who are inturn more incline to resist them, because they have turned to brutality. It’s an ugly scene. Just in the time period between December 29, 2006 and January 2007, there were 14 murders.
But this isn’t the Saints problem. They are doing their best to lift the spirits of the city. Get real. Anyone with eyes can take a look around the Superdome during Saints home games and figure what the common trait of the fans are. White. Rich. Unaffected by the Hurricane (relatively, of course. Every citizen had their own hardship, but I want to emphasize that the people who can afford to go to these games are not suffering like the rest of the community). Heck, most of them probably don’t live in the city anymore.
I’ve heard the arguments: a professional sports team brings in business, and after capitalism takes its course, the $170 million will be easily balanced with new income from economic development. But this relies on several factors: employment opportunities that come with a professional team (most of these employees are seasonal employees and won’t count against the unemployment rate. Once the season is over, they are where they started), tourism attractions (New Orleans isn’t the highest city on anyone’s list to travel to right now. Many professional sports teams highly overrate this factor as it is, because of very limited number of fans that will follow their team around the country.). The Boston Globe, in an article written by Drake Bennett reported that Andrew Zimbalist, a professor at Smith College and a leading sports economist, said “''Generally speaking, the independent research suggests that we can't anticipate any economic impact" from sports teams and stadiums.
In the recent trend of using public money for stadium renovations or building, owners have also relied on something called “physic income”, which is being heavily relied on by Saints supporters.
The basic idea behind physic income is that the general good will of a professional sports team has intangible benefits on a city, one that can’t be measured by dollars and cents. This is type of feel-goodery that has been overplayed in newspapers, magazines and the internet for months. But is it really worth anything?
Murders and violent crimes are on the sharp increase, especially of late, despite the Saints impressive playoff run. The people who feel good about the Saints revival maybe happy, until the realities of having to wear a bullet proof vest on their own front porch set in, where Helen Hill was murdered in front of her husband and two year old child.
Further, if the Saints did move to San Antonio, as owner Tom Benson had contemplated doing before and after the hurricane, would Saints’ fans be any less proud of their team and what they have accomplished? Could they no longer represent the hope, rebirth and heart of a destroyed city? I can’t see why not, at least to a lesser degree. When the Hornets win in Oklahoma City, the I’m sure their fans in New Orleans take pride.
Let’s also examine the possibility, that if the Saints did not go 10-6 and get the #2 ranking in the playoffs. What then? Would the sports media still be blind to the fact good public money went to rebuild a stadium? Or would a losing team no longer make this a happy story?
Wake up. There is a billion better things that New Orleans could have done with that $170 million dollars, none of which would “fix” the city. But you absolutely can not tell me that the city is better off with a football team than another police station, elementary school, hospital, homeless shelter, ANYTHING.
It is true that the money used to repair the dome came from FEMA for repairing “state property”, which would disarm the argument that the money could have been used for housing. However, I just find it hard to believe that city officials could not have arranged for that money to actually go to a public use, instead of a professional football team.
Just two years ago, the Washington D.C. community dealt with a messy war over the a proposed $611 million public financing package for the Nationals’ new stadium. While owners and backers argued about the development and flowing income and psychic income, neighbors, teachers and citizens questioned why that money couldn’t be used to improve their depleting schools. Citizens took an active stand against the deal, but sure enough it passed through. At least they tried.
But New Orleans’ situation is much more dire. What is going on there is an absolute abomination. In a tragedy where our government was criticized for the handling of minorities, we sit back and cheer for the same scene being played out, because it involves tackling people, and punt returns. Let the rich people enjoy football, using money that should be helping out those in who really need it. Wake up, America.
Sources:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/saints/2006-09-20-superdome-cover_x.htm
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2006/03/19/ballpark_figures/?page=2
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8999837/page/2/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16490563/
Just in time for the Saint’s first NFC conference championship birth in forty years of existence, which furthered the miraculous recovery from a 3-13 season in 2005, not to mention the social implications of a “fairy tale” season after Hurricane Katrina completely destroyed New Orleans, the Associated Press released the new murder rate in New Orleans.
Here are some of the not-so-shocking results, from MSNBC:
“Last year, university researchers conducted an experiment in which police fired 700 blank rounds in a New Orleans neighborhood in a single afternoon. No one called to report the gunfire.”
“The city’s homicide rate has climbed again to nearly 10 times the national average”
Criminologist Peter Scharf said ““We’re going in the reverse of 46 of the top 50 cities in the United States. Almost everyone is going down, but we’re going up.”
“The murder rate in New Orleans has crept back up to 265…Adjusted for the city’s size, those numbers dwarf murder rates in Washington, Detroit, Baltimore, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles and New York City.”
OK, you get the point. I don’t deserve a Nobel Peace Prize for pointing out the New Orleans has been and will continue to be a very troubled city. So how come no one, not one columnist, one fan, one public figure has given thought to the possibility that returning a professional football team to a city that was structurally, physically and financially devastated was a bad idea?
After Katrina, the Saints home, the Superdome was damaged to the tune of $185 million. The Governor of Louisiana, Kathleen Blanco, deemed its repair essential to the state, which owned the facility, according to USAToday. Luckily for the residents of New Orleans, Paul Tagliabue provided a $15 million grant, leaving the bill for renovating and repairing the dome at $170 million.
Meanwhile, the city of New Orleans remains completely in ruins. The same MSNBC article sites that the city is down to 3.14 police officers per 1,000 residents, less than half the ratio of Washington D.C “As far as law enforcement goes, money is at the root of everything,” said Lt. David Benelli, head of the police officers union. “We need more personnel, more equipment. The DA’s office needs more people and money. The corrections department needs more people and space to house prisoners.”
The impoverished police have a hard time controlling the apathetic residents, who are inturn more incline to resist them, because they have turned to brutality. It’s an ugly scene. Just in the time period between December 29, 2006 and January 2007, there were 14 murders.
But this isn’t the Saints problem. They are doing their best to lift the spirits of the city. Get real. Anyone with eyes can take a look around the Superdome during Saints home games and figure what the common trait of the fans are. White. Rich. Unaffected by the Hurricane (relatively, of course. Every citizen had their own hardship, but I want to emphasize that the people who can afford to go to these games are not suffering like the rest of the community). Heck, most of them probably don’t live in the city anymore.
I’ve heard the arguments: a professional sports team brings in business, and after capitalism takes its course, the $170 million will be easily balanced with new income from economic development. But this relies on several factors: employment opportunities that come with a professional team (most of these employees are seasonal employees and won’t count against the unemployment rate. Once the season is over, they are where they started), tourism attractions (New Orleans isn’t the highest city on anyone’s list to travel to right now. Many professional sports teams highly overrate this factor as it is, because of very limited number of fans that will follow their team around the country.). The Boston Globe, in an article written by Drake Bennett reported that Andrew Zimbalist, a professor at Smith College and a leading sports economist, said “''Generally speaking, the independent research suggests that we can't anticipate any economic impact" from sports teams and stadiums.
In the recent trend of using public money for stadium renovations or building, owners have also relied on something called “physic income”, which is being heavily relied on by Saints supporters.
The basic idea behind physic income is that the general good will of a professional sports team has intangible benefits on a city, one that can’t be measured by dollars and cents. This is type of feel-goodery that has been overplayed in newspapers, magazines and the internet for months. But is it really worth anything?
Murders and violent crimes are on the sharp increase, especially of late, despite the Saints impressive playoff run. The people who feel good about the Saints revival maybe happy, until the realities of having to wear a bullet proof vest on their own front porch set in, where Helen Hill was murdered in front of her husband and two year old child.
Further, if the Saints did move to San Antonio, as owner Tom Benson had contemplated doing before and after the hurricane, would Saints’ fans be any less proud of their team and what they have accomplished? Could they no longer represent the hope, rebirth and heart of a destroyed city? I can’t see why not, at least to a lesser degree. When the Hornets win in Oklahoma City, the I’m sure their fans in New Orleans take pride.
Let’s also examine the possibility, that if the Saints did not go 10-6 and get the #2 ranking in the playoffs. What then? Would the sports media still be blind to the fact good public money went to rebuild a stadium? Or would a losing team no longer make this a happy story?
Wake up. There is a billion better things that New Orleans could have done with that $170 million dollars, none of which would “fix” the city. But you absolutely can not tell me that the city is better off with a football team than another police station, elementary school, hospital, homeless shelter, ANYTHING.
It is true that the money used to repair the dome came from FEMA for repairing “state property”, which would disarm the argument that the money could have been used for housing. However, I just find it hard to believe that city officials could not have arranged for that money to actually go to a public use, instead of a professional football team.
Just two years ago, the Washington D.C. community dealt with a messy war over the a proposed $611 million public financing package for the Nationals’ new stadium. While owners and backers argued about the development and flowing income and psychic income, neighbors, teachers and citizens questioned why that money couldn’t be used to improve their depleting schools. Citizens took an active stand against the deal, but sure enough it passed through. At least they tried.
But New Orleans’ situation is much more dire. What is going on there is an absolute abomination. In a tragedy where our government was criticized for the handling of minorities, we sit back and cheer for the same scene being played out, because it involves tackling people, and punt returns. Let the rich people enjoy football, using money that should be helping out those in who really need it. Wake up, America.
Sources:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/saints/2006-09-20-superdome-cover_x.htm
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2006/03/19/ballpark_figures/?page=2
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8999837/page/2/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16490563/
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Carlos’ New Stripes
It’s no hot news flash that the baseball’s free agent market has spun out of control. Starting with my Cubbies, who spent $7 million a year on a project pitcher who had an ERA over 6 last year (Jason Marquis) in efforts of trying to either make up for 99 years of failure or jacking up the value of a sinking franchise, and ending with the traditionally pitiful Royals, who gave $11 million a year to Gil Meche, its not original or insightful to say that it’s a good time to be a professional baseball player.
Nor is the suggestion that next year’s market will be equally or more inflated innovative. Both Paul Sullivan and Buster Onley have recently written pieces about the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano’s impending payday. And what a payday it will be. “Big Z” will be looking at a figure that should come close to or exceed $20 million a year for 6 or 7 years if he waits until next year’s free agency. His career 3.29 ERA and 7.97 strikeouts per 9 innings is far superior to Barry Zito’s 3.55 ERA and 6.90 K/9, and Zito’s contract is expected to approach $18 million annually with the Rangers or Mets.
Common logic, or pure hope tells me that the Cubs will lock down Zambrano during spring training, when they have traditionally worked on extensions (see Derek Lee’s deal last year, ie.) Estimates on Zambrano’s salary this year are expected to reach around $15M in arbitration. If the Cubs can afford to give Marquis $7M, then an additional seven or eight million a year for Carlos should be no problem.
Snap out of it dreamers. If the Cubs are planning on signing Zambrano, why wait? There is very little he can do to lower his value over the next year—except an injury, which equals disaster for the franchise; they couldn’t possibly be holding out hope for that.
Further, these negotiations promise to be extensive, as Zambrano has even said he won’t be giving the Cubs a hometown discount.
Lets play the worst nightmare game, a familiar one for Cubbies fans. The Cubs can’t sign Carlos to an extension, their mediocre team falters down the stretch, and Carlos hits the market. A bidding war ensues. Carlos, sick of playing for a losing team, goes to a big city, follows the big money and goes to the New York Yankees. The Cubs meanwhile have 7 more years committed to Soriano, 4 more to Ramirez and their ace is Ted Lilly? Absolute nightmare. Zambrano, by the way, wins his first Cy Young award and World Series within 12 months of leaving.
This decision is too obvious for Hendry to botch. On a team that has lacked reliable, good pitchers, give a blank check to your best, most reliable pitcher—scratch that, player. Zambrano, despite his mental meltdowns has been nothing but a passionate player, who wants nothing more than to win. The sooner the better, Jim.
Other tidbits:
Hard to tell what is in the Cubs’ plans for the outfield, but signs seem to point to trading Jacque Jones if they can, despite his left-handed bat, and the lack of left-handed bats in the rest of the lineup. Turns out he isn’t “happy” in Chicago, because the fans weren’t “nice” to him. Waaaa. Booohoooo. It’s surprising you know, because Cubs fans (all fans) usually love slow starting, over paid outfielders, who can’t make a good throw, get thrown out repetitively on the basepath where a third grader wouldn’t and instigate fan taunting (as some Mets players reported).
The Cubs should be planning on platooning Angel Pagan and hyped prospect Felix Pie in center, giving them some speed, defense and that left handed presence. Only problem is that Pie is hitting about .200 in the winter leagues, and we all know what happened the Cubs rushed up a prized, centerfield prospect.
Didn’t get all of my Week 16 predictions right, but hey I started hot. While I’m off to Vegas for New Years, I’ll be betting on my Titans, who incredibly can finish no worse than 8-8, to beat the Patriots. Coupled with losses by the Broncos, Bengals, and Jaguars, they sneak in. Good luck Vince.
Finally, want to wish everyone a happy and healthy new year. Be safe.
Nor is the suggestion that next year’s market will be equally or more inflated innovative. Both Paul Sullivan and Buster Onley have recently written pieces about the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano’s impending payday. And what a payday it will be. “Big Z” will be looking at a figure that should come close to or exceed $20 million a year for 6 or 7 years if he waits until next year’s free agency. His career 3.29 ERA and 7.97 strikeouts per 9 innings is far superior to Barry Zito’s 3.55 ERA and 6.90 K/9, and Zito’s contract is expected to approach $18 million annually with the Rangers or Mets.
Common logic, or pure hope tells me that the Cubs will lock down Zambrano during spring training, when they have traditionally worked on extensions (see Derek Lee’s deal last year, ie.) Estimates on Zambrano’s salary this year are expected to reach around $15M in arbitration. If the Cubs can afford to give Marquis $7M, then an additional seven or eight million a year for Carlos should be no problem.
Snap out of it dreamers. If the Cubs are planning on signing Zambrano, why wait? There is very little he can do to lower his value over the next year—except an injury, which equals disaster for the franchise; they couldn’t possibly be holding out hope for that.
Further, these negotiations promise to be extensive, as Zambrano has even said he won’t be giving the Cubs a hometown discount.
Lets play the worst nightmare game, a familiar one for Cubbies fans. The Cubs can’t sign Carlos to an extension, their mediocre team falters down the stretch, and Carlos hits the market. A bidding war ensues. Carlos, sick of playing for a losing team, goes to a big city, follows the big money and goes to the New York Yankees. The Cubs meanwhile have 7 more years committed to Soriano, 4 more to Ramirez and their ace is Ted Lilly? Absolute nightmare. Zambrano, by the way, wins his first Cy Young award and World Series within 12 months of leaving.
This decision is too obvious for Hendry to botch. On a team that has lacked reliable, good pitchers, give a blank check to your best, most reliable pitcher—scratch that, player. Zambrano, despite his mental meltdowns has been nothing but a passionate player, who wants nothing more than to win. The sooner the better, Jim.
Other tidbits:
Hard to tell what is in the Cubs’ plans for the outfield, but signs seem to point to trading Jacque Jones if they can, despite his left-handed bat, and the lack of left-handed bats in the rest of the lineup. Turns out he isn’t “happy” in Chicago, because the fans weren’t “nice” to him. Waaaa. Booohoooo. It’s surprising you know, because Cubs fans (all fans) usually love slow starting, over paid outfielders, who can’t make a good throw, get thrown out repetitively on the basepath where a third grader wouldn’t and instigate fan taunting (as some Mets players reported).
The Cubs should be planning on platooning Angel Pagan and hyped prospect Felix Pie in center, giving them some speed, defense and that left handed presence. Only problem is that Pie is hitting about .200 in the winter leagues, and we all know what happened the Cubs rushed up a prized, centerfield prospect.
Didn’t get all of my Week 16 predictions right, but hey I started hot. While I’m off to Vegas for New Years, I’ll be betting on my Titans, who incredibly can finish no worse than 8-8, to beat the Patriots. Coupled with losses by the Broncos, Bengals, and Jaguars, they sneak in. Good luck Vince.
Finally, want to wish everyone a happy and healthy new year. Be safe.
Friday, December 22, 2006
Since U Been Gone: Return of the Surplus
Hello, Sports Surplus fans. If you have ever existed, and are still faithful, than you must be growing ever more impatient and angry. It’s been a while since the last post, and thanks to law school and a real job by the contributors, well the site has been forsaken. No more! Today’s renewal represents the resolution to bring more fresh sports opinions to your internet start up page.
Since we last spoke, so much has happened. I correctly predicted the AL and NL playoff winners (September Shakedown). Luckily, my postseason predictions came after the blog hiatus, where I actually picked EVERY playoff game wrong. Every single one.
Terrell Owens caused trouble, broke his hand, attempted suicide, accused his teammates of ratting him out and then spit on a player. Hardly news worthy. My favorite part of this year’s T.O. news is after the details of the suicide attempt: his “publicist”, who was strangely at his house at 2 a.m. called the police, after he was passed out, next to an empty pill bottle. I don’t know what kind of publicist that is, but I want one.
The baseball hot stove has been in full coil (?), and my home town Cubbies have been spending money like Michael Jackson in the early 1990’s. More columns in the coming weeks to come on this. But let’s just say there are two type of Cubs’ fans right now: ones that are happy that they won’t be 30 games under .500 this year, and ones that are reinforcing their windows because they Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis have signed.
Jason Whitlock was fired from ESPN, in one of the greatest moments in Sports Surplus history. The writers over here celebrated with a party. I take at least half credit, along with his terrible writing, inappropriate bias, ridiculous claims of unfairness. Never having to see his fat-ass on TV, or reading his terrible columns on ESPN.com is a holiday miracle.
I might also take this time to brag about my bold prediction that the New Orleans Saints would make the playoffs (NFC Preview). Feel free to ignore my NFC Championship prediction.
With many things to reflect upon from the year in sports, let’s first examine what is to come in. Two weeks left in the regular season in the NFL, and very little is decided. Only the Bears, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Ravens and Chargers have clinched.
While everyone has their own system of sorting through the possible chaos of the next two weeks, I’ll simply break down each game to clarify the NFL playoff picture for you.
Week 16:
KC at Oakland: Despite LJ’s recent disgruntledness, I can’t see Oakland pulling this one out, simply because they are just awful.
Tennessee at Buffalo: My homeboy Vince, the man, take this one, easily. You have got to love the way the Titans are playing. I almost cried when he ran for that overtime TD against Houston. No bias here. Buffalo is eliminated by the loss.
Carolina at Atlanta: Which Vick shows up? My faith in the running QB is not as high as Vince. Carolina pulls the upset, further complicating the NFC picture.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Even with the huge disparity in motivating factors between the two teams, Baltimore’s sheer talent on defense comes through. All Kyle Boller has to do is hand the ball off.
New England at Jacksonville: In the game of the week, again the question of which Jaguars team shows up. My gut says Billichek brings his best game plan, and with a battered Fred Taylor and Jones-Drew, the Patriots sneak by.
New Orleans at New York Giants: Saints don’t have much to play for, relative to the Giants, but that talent disparity is huge. Giants lose this one, essentially knocking themselves out.
Washington at St. Louis: Jason Campbell continues his astounding growth, ending the Rams’ dreams of a miracle playoff shot.
Arizona at San Francisco: Frank Gore has got it going, keeps the 49ers in it one more week.
San Diego at Seattle: Seattle gets stomped, even with the Chargers just cruising, because LT knows that this is fantasy owner’s super bowl week.
Cincinnati at Denver: I’ve been a Bengals backer all year, cause I think their offense is too potent when it rolls. If Cutler gets it going, its going to be a shoot-out. The homefield advantage isn’t going to be enough for the Broncos, unless it snows.
Philadelphia at Dallas: What a Christmas gift for Eagles fans—a chance to ruin T.O’s dreams, at the hands of JEFF GARCIA! Not gonna happen, sorry guys. Have a cheesesteak and some eggnog, cause Julius Jones and Barber will run for about 200 yards in this one.
Jets at Miami: Miami’s late season surge continues, as Ronnie Brown comes back. The Jets have gotten to 8-6 by playing mistake free, solid ball. But Dolphins have been playing like a good football team lately, and should win easily.
Week 17:
NY Giants at Washington: Giants, in a must win game, win against a pretty bad opponent. Gibbs retires after the game? Think about it.
Seattle at Tampa Bay: This one goes down to the wire. Tampa has shown a little heart toward the end of this season, but needing a win to advance, I’ll take Seattle in a last second FG.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: In what might become basically a play in game, Andy Reid will be forced to figure out how to contain Vick. Vick should bounce back, exposing Philly’s weak run defense. A shoot out for sure, but I expect Atlanta to walk out winners.
Oakland at the Jets: Jets, see the above prediction of KC vs Oakland.
Detroit at Dallas: Dallas has no problem here. Only question is if Millen still has a job afterwards.
Green Bay at Chicago: The Packers have a shot at the playoffs and the Bears are resting, but no way the Bears allow the Packers to get a spot with a win. Bears big.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Could be a great matchup, especially if my week 16 predictions are off (un-bloody likely). Cincy still needs a win, but Pittsburgh gives them hell. Cincy wins late.
New England at Tennessee: VY is mis-matched, and it finally looks like the Titans win streak comes to an end. Wrong! Vince leads the Titans passed a resting New England, finishing with a 9-7 record.
Jacksonville at Kansas City: Maurice Jones-Drew and company right the ship, and play past the lifeless Chiefs, calling for a miserable offseason in KC. At least there is Gil Meche.
San Francisco at Denver: The 49ers make this close, but will probably have trouble putting up any points. Denver locks up a playoff spot with the win.
The final picture:
NFC:
Bears
Saints
Dallas
Seattle
Philly (8-8)
Giants (8-8)
Atlanta (8-8)
Looks like the Giants would be the odd-man out using the NFL’s tiebreaker methods (needing to take only one wild card from each division, in a tie, then using conference records).
In the AFC:
San Diego
Indianapolis
Baltimore
New England
Cincinnati (10-6)
Jets (9-7)
Jacksonville (9-7)
Tennessee (9-7)
Denver (9-7)
Tennessee’s superior division record trumps Jacksonville so they are out. Denver, by virtue of their conference record moves on.
So there you have it folks.
I want to wish everyone a happy holiday and healthy new year. I plan to write more in the coming few weeks and months, until law school gets hard again. I’ve missed writing, and its good to be back. Thanks for reading.
Since we last spoke, so much has happened. I correctly predicted the AL and NL playoff winners (September Shakedown). Luckily, my postseason predictions came after the blog hiatus, where I actually picked EVERY playoff game wrong. Every single one.
Terrell Owens caused trouble, broke his hand, attempted suicide, accused his teammates of ratting him out and then spit on a player. Hardly news worthy. My favorite part of this year’s T.O. news is after the details of the suicide attempt: his “publicist”, who was strangely at his house at 2 a.m. called the police, after he was passed out, next to an empty pill bottle. I don’t know what kind of publicist that is, but I want one.
The baseball hot stove has been in full coil (?), and my home town Cubbies have been spending money like Michael Jackson in the early 1990’s. More columns in the coming weeks to come on this. But let’s just say there are two type of Cubs’ fans right now: ones that are happy that they won’t be 30 games under .500 this year, and ones that are reinforcing their windows because they Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis have signed.
Jason Whitlock was fired from ESPN, in one of the greatest moments in Sports Surplus history. The writers over here celebrated with a party. I take at least half credit, along with his terrible writing, inappropriate bias, ridiculous claims of unfairness. Never having to see his fat-ass on TV, or reading his terrible columns on ESPN.com is a holiday miracle.
I might also take this time to brag about my bold prediction that the New Orleans Saints would make the playoffs (NFC Preview). Feel free to ignore my NFC Championship prediction.
With many things to reflect upon from the year in sports, let’s first examine what is to come in. Two weeks left in the regular season in the NFL, and very little is decided. Only the Bears, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Ravens and Chargers have clinched.
While everyone has their own system of sorting through the possible chaos of the next two weeks, I’ll simply break down each game to clarify the NFL playoff picture for you.
Week 16:
KC at Oakland: Despite LJ’s recent disgruntledness, I can’t see Oakland pulling this one out, simply because they are just awful.
Tennessee at Buffalo: My homeboy Vince, the man, take this one, easily. You have got to love the way the Titans are playing. I almost cried when he ran for that overtime TD against Houston. No bias here. Buffalo is eliminated by the loss.
Carolina at Atlanta: Which Vick shows up? My faith in the running QB is not as high as Vince. Carolina pulls the upset, further complicating the NFC picture.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Even with the huge disparity in motivating factors between the two teams, Baltimore’s sheer talent on defense comes through. All Kyle Boller has to do is hand the ball off.
New England at Jacksonville: In the game of the week, again the question of which Jaguars team shows up. My gut says Billichek brings his best game plan, and with a battered Fred Taylor and Jones-Drew, the Patriots sneak by.
New Orleans at New York Giants: Saints don’t have much to play for, relative to the Giants, but that talent disparity is huge. Giants lose this one, essentially knocking themselves out.
Washington at St. Louis: Jason Campbell continues his astounding growth, ending the Rams’ dreams of a miracle playoff shot.
Arizona at San Francisco: Frank Gore has got it going, keeps the 49ers in it one more week.
San Diego at Seattle: Seattle gets stomped, even with the Chargers just cruising, because LT knows that this is fantasy owner’s super bowl week.
Cincinnati at Denver: I’ve been a Bengals backer all year, cause I think their offense is too potent when it rolls. If Cutler gets it going, its going to be a shoot-out. The homefield advantage isn’t going to be enough for the Broncos, unless it snows.
Philadelphia at Dallas: What a Christmas gift for Eagles fans—a chance to ruin T.O’s dreams, at the hands of JEFF GARCIA! Not gonna happen, sorry guys. Have a cheesesteak and some eggnog, cause Julius Jones and Barber will run for about 200 yards in this one.
Jets at Miami: Miami’s late season surge continues, as Ronnie Brown comes back. The Jets have gotten to 8-6 by playing mistake free, solid ball. But Dolphins have been playing like a good football team lately, and should win easily.
Week 17:
NY Giants at Washington: Giants, in a must win game, win against a pretty bad opponent. Gibbs retires after the game? Think about it.
Seattle at Tampa Bay: This one goes down to the wire. Tampa has shown a little heart toward the end of this season, but needing a win to advance, I’ll take Seattle in a last second FG.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: In what might become basically a play in game, Andy Reid will be forced to figure out how to contain Vick. Vick should bounce back, exposing Philly’s weak run defense. A shoot out for sure, but I expect Atlanta to walk out winners.
Oakland at the Jets: Jets, see the above prediction of KC vs Oakland.
Detroit at Dallas: Dallas has no problem here. Only question is if Millen still has a job afterwards.
Green Bay at Chicago: The Packers have a shot at the playoffs and the Bears are resting, but no way the Bears allow the Packers to get a spot with a win. Bears big.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Could be a great matchup, especially if my week 16 predictions are off (un-bloody likely). Cincy still needs a win, but Pittsburgh gives them hell. Cincy wins late.
New England at Tennessee: VY is mis-matched, and it finally looks like the Titans win streak comes to an end. Wrong! Vince leads the Titans passed a resting New England, finishing with a 9-7 record.
Jacksonville at Kansas City: Maurice Jones-Drew and company right the ship, and play past the lifeless Chiefs, calling for a miserable offseason in KC. At least there is Gil Meche.
San Francisco at Denver: The 49ers make this close, but will probably have trouble putting up any points. Denver locks up a playoff spot with the win.
The final picture:
NFC:
Bears
Saints
Dallas
Seattle
Philly (8-8)
Giants (8-8)
Atlanta (8-8)
Looks like the Giants would be the odd-man out using the NFL’s tiebreaker methods (needing to take only one wild card from each division, in a tie, then using conference records).
In the AFC:
San Diego
Indianapolis
Baltimore
New England
Cincinnati (10-6)
Jets (9-7)
Jacksonville (9-7)
Tennessee (9-7)
Denver (9-7)
Tennessee’s superior division record trumps Jacksonville so they are out. Denver, by virtue of their conference record moves on.
So there you have it folks.
I want to wish everyone a happy holiday and healthy new year. I plan to write more in the coming few weeks and months, until law school gets hard again. I’ve missed writing, and its good to be back. Thanks for reading.
Sunday, September 17, 2006
Judgment, People
Sports has an ugly side, we’ve all seen it. Steve Bartman, any professional team from Kansas City, fans at the White Sox game, Jake Plummer’s moustache, the NHL, Chris Simms, etc. But the last week has brought out the worst of the worse.
Greeley, Colorado, is mostly known for mining and skiing, and for a university that once offered me a full academic scholarship based on my Pre-SAT scores. Flash to Monday of this week, when the backup punter at Northern Colorado University, a Division II athletic program, was arrested in connection of the stabbing of the starting punter. Even from one month in law school, I know that you are innocent until proven guilty, but Jesus almighty, there is some compelling evidence.
Wait a minute? A backup punter stabbing the first stringer? Is that a joke? The victim, Mitch Cozad was averaging 36 yards a punt! In the thin Colorado air! How bad was the backup, where his only conceivable way of capturing the job was STABBING his competition IN THE LEG?
And when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, an even more sickening story was reported out Pittsburgh, where a coach was convicted of corruption of minors and criminal solicitation to commit simple assault after he offered one of his T-BALL (emphasis added) players $25 to take out a teammate, who was mildly autistic in practice, so that he could not play in the game. This sort of action needs no smart aleck, jackass commentary. Next time you get a speeding ticket, or have a hangover throw up attack in the office or get banging your girl’s best friend again, just drop the story about Mark Downs, you’ll be instantly forgiven.
Now I know it’s unnecessary to focus on the ugliness with so much good sports action going on. Football season is in full bloom with all of its glory shining upon the grateful college and professional fans, the pennant races are heating up, and there is just love in the air, in general. I’m just saying, we all need to pause once and a while, reflect and put our priorities in place. The next time you find yourself coaching your son’s little league team, or your co-ed softball team, or your intramural flag football team, use good judgment on whether intentionally battering someone causing serious harm to another is a worthwhile practice, to ensure a better competitive outcome. That’s all.
Well, I am happy to report that, Northern Colorado did bounce back and beat Texas State (formerly Southwest Texas State, who might I add played for the Division II title last year), despite the fact the third string punter and strong safety, forced to play in such weird circumstances, was injured. Fourth stringer Michael York’s first punt went 7 yards.
And while I can’t report on any happier endings for the poor autistic child who was beaned by his own teammate, I will assure he is OK. In fact, the court could not convict Downs of a more serious crime, because he did not cause serious body harm to the child.
And if you can’t take solace in that, the Bears are straight up nasty, Notre Dame was embarrassed, and the White Sox are choking down the stretch. If that doesn’t make you happy, you have no heart.
Have a safe week people.
Greeley, Colorado, is mostly known for mining and skiing, and for a university that once offered me a full academic scholarship based on my Pre-SAT scores. Flash to Monday of this week, when the backup punter at Northern Colorado University, a Division II athletic program, was arrested in connection of the stabbing of the starting punter. Even from one month in law school, I know that you are innocent until proven guilty, but Jesus almighty, there is some compelling evidence.
Wait a minute? A backup punter stabbing the first stringer? Is that a joke? The victim, Mitch Cozad was averaging 36 yards a punt! In the thin Colorado air! How bad was the backup, where his only conceivable way of capturing the job was STABBING his competition IN THE LEG?
And when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, an even more sickening story was reported out Pittsburgh, where a coach was convicted of corruption of minors and criminal solicitation to commit simple assault after he offered one of his T-BALL (emphasis added) players $25 to take out a teammate, who was mildly autistic in practice, so that he could not play in the game. This sort of action needs no smart aleck, jackass commentary. Next time you get a speeding ticket, or have a hangover throw up attack in the office or get banging your girl’s best friend again, just drop the story about Mark Downs, you’ll be instantly forgiven.
Now I know it’s unnecessary to focus on the ugliness with so much good sports action going on. Football season is in full bloom with all of its glory shining upon the grateful college and professional fans, the pennant races are heating up, and there is just love in the air, in general. I’m just saying, we all need to pause once and a while, reflect and put our priorities in place. The next time you find yourself coaching your son’s little league team, or your co-ed softball team, or your intramural flag football team, use good judgment on whether intentionally battering someone causing serious harm to another is a worthwhile practice, to ensure a better competitive outcome. That’s all.
Well, I am happy to report that, Northern Colorado did bounce back and beat Texas State (formerly Southwest Texas State, who might I add played for the Division II title last year), despite the fact the third string punter and strong safety, forced to play in such weird circumstances, was injured. Fourth stringer Michael York’s first punt went 7 yards.
And while I can’t report on any happier endings for the poor autistic child who was beaned by his own teammate, I will assure he is OK. In fact, the court could not convict Downs of a more serious crime, because he did not cause serious body harm to the child.
And if you can’t take solace in that, the Bears are straight up nasty, Notre Dame was embarrassed, and the White Sox are choking down the stretch. If that doesn’t make you happy, you have no heart.
Have a safe week people.
